Friday, January 10, 2014

2014 METRO ATLANTA REAL ESTATE FORECAST PART ONE

   2013 was a huge year in real estate for Metro Atlanta. Not only did we see sales increase all across the board, but the low inventory of homes pushed prices up.  There are three areas that you will see all around you this year as signs that the housing market is growing stronger.  I wouldn't say it's 'back' simply because it's been back for over two years now. News flash, the market rebounded in 2011! Let's look at 3 key areas: new construction, traditional sales, and foreclosures/short sales.
   The low inventory of homes in high-demand areas spawned a new construction boom that will catapult 2014.  All through Gwinnett, Cobb, and Fulton County builders were able to get back to good ol' days of new construction. Decorated model homes, on-site agents, standing inventory with incentives and pre-construction contracts. Extremely high-demand school districts with low resale inventory saw new communities pop up in the $300K+ range. Communities with vacant lots now new have builders constructing comparable homes. In-town areas are seeing undeveloped lots being sold and homes going up starting at $600K.  The benefit?  Everyone likes NEW! The downside?  Well, there are many. In most cases the aesthetics are inferior in quality compared to the original homes in the first phase(s). In the entry level in-town homes, the kitchens and master bedrooms are more grand but the secondary bedrooms/bathrooms and living spaces have suffered.  In the suburban homes, the interior floor plans have grown, kitchens have become more open, maintenance is also more economical with the removal of the two-story family and some builder moving away from gas utilities.  The short comings are in the appliance packages, standard flooring & fixtures, the exterior brick-front construction, smaller lot sizes, and backyard shrinkage.  Builders have continued the cut backs on items like refrigerators, garage door openers, window screens, alarm systems, shower doors, closet racks, architectural shingle roofing & gutters.  But overall, the trade-offs what what you get for your money being worth it or not, is in the eye of the buyer.  Granted, the housing market in 2014 is very similar to the market 6-8 years ago sparked by the current demand so skimping on those items is still justifiable.  What is not the same is no more shady builders.  With tight reigns still on commercial and builder financing, the only builders you see now are reputable ones who are solid financially; John Weiland, D.R. Horton, Ashton Woods are some names you'll recognize but others like Paran Homes & Almont Homes have numerous communities going up throughout the Metro Atlanta area.
   If you're looking at traditional resale homes, the most important thing (which hasn't changed with the new year) is to determine what the home is worth. Getting a quick Zestimate never hurt anyone, but it's what it says it is, an estimate! The good folks at Zillow actually confirmed this on my fan page a year ago (has it been that long?!?!)  To get the true retail value you need to look at homes that have sold within a 3-6 month period, within a 1-mile radius, similar square footage, age, and interior characteristics as ALL of these play a big part in the value of a home. A zip code change or a school district can drastically affect the value of a home even though it's less than a mile away! Finished basements, square footage, and number of bedrooms/bathrooms are also key so you need access to all of this information to compare, adjust cost, and determine the true value of a property. With that you'll then need to analyze the seller's mortgage position to determine the seller's bottom line and formulate an offer than gets you the best deal that a seller will accept! Sounds easy right? Well it AIN'T!!!! That is what great agents are for!
    Foreclosures and short sales are still big buzz words but both lost steam in 2013. Foreclosures because of the lack of them and short sales because the unemployment rate went down and more people were able to stay in their homes! Good for people, bad for inventory. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and HUD foreclosures are still entering the market consistently, but the bank foreclosures are few and far between.  The trick now is getting your hands on one!  Short sales (sadly) haven't gotten any shorter and they can still take 3-9 months to close. My personal short sale listings average a 4-month turn-around from list to close. I still have some that drag out up to 6 months and hell, I know what I'm doing!
  Purchasing in a sellers market can be a real drag with all of the competition and low selection, but doing your homework up front and creating a strategy makes the difference between you either finding a home and keeping your sanity or driving you crazy and driving you around Atlanta!

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